Bajaj Hindustan - Interesting Stock

Bajaj Hindustan had a good start today before losing during the end of the day. The stock was up 7% intraday and there was profit booking at the latter half. The stock is interesting with the recent news of sugar exports ban being lifted for companies with export obligations. There was a good run in most sugar companies but then the market was too pessimistic to factor the news. So, this gives a good opportunity to buy the stock.

• The stock saw some good volumes today but the accumulation distribution chart is yet to give a buy signal.
• There is an almost 'buy' signal from the bullish line from the MACD chart. Still not a clear signal emerging fromt the stock.
• RSI is on a safer zone and hence the downside looks limited in this stock.
• The stock price is at the bottom of the channel formation and historically the stock has seen some bounceback from the bottom of the channel. However, this did not occur the last time, a small concern for the stock. However, the information currently on the lifting of exports can do more good than harm for the stock.

The stock can bounce from these levels and is a decent 'accumulate' at these levels.
With the stock currently at Rs. 228, the upside for the stock is currently at Rs. 295-300, giving an upside of about 30%. However, given the underlying bearishness in the market, I would like to look at the speed of the stock movement at Rs. 240 and then further again at Rs. 280. Downside is difficult to predict and if it falls below Rs. 200, then one can start selling the stock.